Pro Picks: Ravens, Bills, 49ers, Lions will advance to conference championship games

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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) runs against the Miami Dolphins during the second half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

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Graphic looks at NFL divisional round of the playoffs and predicts the winners; 3c x 2 1/2 inches

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Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) walks off the field after defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers in an NFL wild-card playoff football game, Monday, Jan. 15, 2024, in Buffalo, N.Y. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)

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Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) looks to pass as he scrambles against the Miami Dolphins during the first half of an NFL football game in Baltimore, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

By ROB MAADDI

Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.

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Eight teams remain. Four games to determine the NFL’s Final Four. Plenty of story lines.

Josh Allen and the Bills have a third chance to get their first playoff win over Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers hit the road to get respect from C.J. Gardner-Johnson and the Detroit Lions.

Lamar Jackson and the No. 1 seed Ravens aim to change their playoff narrative when they host C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans.

The No. 1 seed 49ers and the Green Bay Packers renew their playoff rivalry with two new quarterbacks leading the way this time around.

After a winning regular season, Pro Picks aims to rebound from a losing start in the wild-card round.

HOUSTON at BALTIMORE

Line: Ravens minus 9 1/2

Stroud had a spectacular playoff debut for the Texans (11-7) in a 45-14 rout over Cleveland. First-year coach DeMeco Ryans quickly turned the franchise around with Stroud’s help but now they’re the huge underdogs, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Jackson had an All-Pro season leading Baltimore (13-4) to 10 wins over teams that finished with winning records. The Ravens won eight of those games by at least 14 points, including a 25-9 victory against Houston in Week 1.

Los Angeles Chargers general manager Joe Hortiz speaks during a press conference at the NFL football scouting combine in Indianapolis, Tuesday, Feb. 27, 2024. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

Chargers GM Joe Hortiz acknowledges tough salary cap decisions had to be made

FILE - Detroit Lions cornerback Cameron Sutton (1) looks on from the sideline during the second half of an NFL football game against the Baltimore Ravens, Oct. 22, 2023, in Baltimore. A Florida sheriff's department on Wednesday, March 20, 2024, said it has a domestic violence warrant seeking the arrest of Sutton and asked for public help in finding him. (AP Photo/Terrance Williams, File)

Lions release Cameron Sutton as search for defensive back continues on domestic violence warrant

FILE - New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas warms up for the team's NFL football game against the Chicago Bears in New Orleans, Nov. 5, 2023. Thomas has been accepted into a pre-trial diversion program that could help him avoid trial in a case stemming from his arrest last fall. City of Kenner (La.) spokeswoman Valerie Brolin says “once all matters and requirements are satisfied, the case can be closed.” Last season was Thomas' last under contract with New Orleans and he has not signed with another team. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert, File)

Ex-Saints receiver Michael Thomas entering diversion in case stemming from arrest last fall

These aren’t the same Texans four months later. Baltimore hopes it’s not the same playoff failure for Jackson, who is just 1-3 in the postseason.

Stroud had one of the best seasons for a rookie quarterback and handled the league’s top-ranked defense last week. But he’s facing another stout unit led by All-Pros Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton.

RAVENS, 30-20

GREEN BAY at SAN FRANCISCO

Line: 49ers minus 9 1/2

This will be a record 10th playoff meeting between the two teams with San Francisco riding a four-game winning streak behind two wins apiece by Colin Kaepernick and Jimmy Garoppolo. Now, it’s Brock Purdy’s turn for the 49ers and Jordan Love at QB instead of Aaron Rodgers for the Packers (10-8).

Love also had a sensational playoff debut in a 48-32 rout over Dallas. The Cowboys entered with the fifth-ranked defense and had zero answers for coach Matt LaFleur’s game plan. Love, Aaron Jones and Romeo Doubs were unstoppable.

The 49ers (12-5) have a dynamic offense led by All-Pros Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Kyle Juszczyk and Purdy, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. They also have a star-studded defense led by All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner and Nick Bosa and Charvarius Ward.

BEST BET: 49ERS, 34-19

TAMPA BAY at DETROIT

Line: Lions minus 6 1/2

Mayfield followed up his best season with an excellent performance in a 32-9 victory over Philadelphia. But Gardner-Johnson, a Lions cornerback, wasn’t all that impressed. He praised the Buccaneers’ wide receivers this week and added they’d be even better with a good quarterback. Mayfield responded by questioning whether Gardner-Johnson has watched any film because he mentioned Bucs receiver Russell Gage as one of the dangerous playmakers even though he’s been injured all season.

The trash talk on the field should be fun.

Jared Goff led the Lions (13-5) to a 24-23 win over the Rams last week after Detroit’s offense opened with three straight touchdown drives.

Tampa Bay’s defense shut down Jalen Hurts and Philadelphia but now faces a tougher challenge. The Lions cruised to a 20-6 road win over the Buccaneers (10-8) in Week 6.

LIONS, 23-20

KANSAS CITY at BUFFALO

Line: Bills minus 2 1/2

Finally, the Bills get the Chiefs at home in January.

Mahomes’ first road playoff game of his career comes after two victories over the Bills at home in consecutive postseasons in the 2020 and 2021 seasons. The teams didn’t face off last year in the playoffs when the Chiefs (12-6) went on to win the Super Bowl.

The Bills (12-6) were 6-6 before a 20-17 victory at Kansas City ignited a five-game winning streak to close out the regular season. They’re playing on shorter rest after a snowstorm forced them to play Pittsburgh on Monday. The Chiefs had two extra days’ rest after beating Miami last Saturday night.

BILLS, 24-23

Last week: Straight up: 2-4. Against spread: 2-4

Regular season: Straight up: 168-104. Against spread: 144-118-10.

Playoffs: Straight up: 2-4. Against spread: 2-4

Best Bet: Straight up: 9-10. Against spread: 6-12-1.

Upset Special: Straight up: 8-11. Against spread: 11-8.

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ROB MAADDI

Maaddi is senior NFL writer for The Associated Press. He’s covered the league for 24 years, including the first two decades as the Eagles beat writer.